Last price as of Fri, Aug 14, 5:49 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Wheat up $13 (+1.9%) on Black Sea supply disruptions from Ukrainian drone strikes halting operations at Russia's Novorossiysk port. Cocoa down $96 (-1.7%). Dutch TTF up $0.70 (+1.2%) on geopolitical supply risks and precautionary demand. Crude up $1.16 (+1.1%) on deadlocked talks to end Middle East conflict and reopen Strait of Hormuz. Corn up $5 (+1.1%) on tighter supply forecasts and strong export demand. Nickel (SHFE $/mt) down $188 (-1.1%) on expectations of improved Indonesian supply.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends long December 2026-March 2027 European diesel/gasoil timespread to hedge persistent Mideast and Russia disruptions.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Britain’s BP and the United Arab Emirates’ XRG have been awarded an exploration and production license for Venezuela’s Loran offshore gas field. The field holds an estimated 4 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas and is part of the Loran-Manatee accumulation straddling the Venezuela-Trinidad and Tobago boundary. BP will operate with equal working interests. Read →
U.S. natural gas futures settled lower after a weekly inventory build of 33 Bcf to 3,117 Bcf, widening the surplus over the five-year average to 195 Bcf. The injection exceeded expectations and the five-year average, intensifying selling pressure as markets focus on ample supplies ahead of shoulder season. Nymex gas fell about 1.8-2.4% to around $2.62-$2.64/mmBtu. Read →
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell below the monthly average amid competing U.S. and Iranian claims of control. Only nine commodity vessels transited on Thursday versus a daily average of 12, with some vessels going dark; attacks on ADNOC tankers were also reported. The U.S. signaled it could maintain an indefinite naval blockade. Read →
At least four Asian refiners including GS Caltex, Cosmo, Eneos and CPC bought millions of barrels of U.S. crude like Mars and WTI for November delivery at premiums of $8-14 over benchmarks. With Hormuz traffic constrained, refiners are securing non-Gulf supplies amid tight fuel margins. India’s HPCL and MRPL also issued crude tenders. Read →
Brent rose 1 cent to $87.08 per barrel and WTI gained 6 cents to $81.31 after the US warned it could maintain an indefinite naval blockade of Iran and ramp up economic sanctions. The move revives supply disruption fears through the Strait of Hormuz despite Thursday's largest US crude stock build in over 3.5 years and softer demand forecasts from OPEC and the IEA. Read →
Supertankers are extending periods with transponders off to transit the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, building on tactics used since the Iran war began. This reflects heightened risks and efforts to move non-Iranian crude despite the stalemate. Read →
Russian crude accounted for 50.83% or 2.47 million barrels per day of India's July imports, up 62% year-over-year as Middle East supply disruptions from the Iran war force buyers to Russian barrels. The shift reduced Middle East's share to about 30% from 43% a year earlier. Read →
State-owned Indian refiners including Indian Oil and Hindustan Petroleum are securing spot crude supplies months in advance through October and into November due to uncertainty from Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets and the Hormuz stalemate. This extends their typical one-to-two-month purchasing horizon. Read →
Over 540,000 barrels of low-sulphur straight-run fuel oil from PRefChem departed August 8 for a US West Coast refinery, the first such shipment since 2023. Tight global feedstock supplies from the Iran war and strong refining margins are driving longer-haul trades. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · EIA 36 Bcf storage injection and strong production send US natural gas futures lower.
The EIA reported a 36 Bcf net injection for the week ended Aug. 7, matching NGI’s forecast but exceeding many market estimates and the five-year average. Working gas in storage reached 3,153 Bcf, 198 Bcf above the five-year average. The larger-than-expected build reinforced bearish pressure on futures amid robust supply. Read →
Futures floundered after the EIA’s 36 Bcf injection print proved bearish relative to historical norms and expectations. Strong production and ample inventories outweighed hot weather support for power demand. The report extended the storage surplus despite ongoing summer cooling needs. Read →
Golden Pass LNG has walked back an average 36% of first-cycle nominations since July 30 during commissioning. Intraday cuts reached as high as 43%. Unreliable early demand signals from the Southeast Texas terminal complicate feedgas forecasts for the broader US natural gas market. Read →
Sandy Segrist · Hart Energy · Thu, Aug 13, 5:31 PM ET
Moss Lake Partners withdrew the proposed interstate DeLa Express pipeline from FERC review and will reconfigure it as a Texas intrastate system targeting 2030 startup. The move follows shipper feedback and a crowded Permian takeaway landscape. It reduces planned long-haul capacity from the basin to Gulf Coast markets. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF holds near EUR 60/MWh as EU storage lags at 59% full with slow injections amid tight LNG supply.
Bangladesh government approved a long-term deal for 117 LNG cargoes from US-based Gunvor (2026-2038), with early deliveries priced at JKM plus a small premium, plus eight spot cargoes from other suppliers. The move diversifies supply away from disrupted Qatari flows due to Middle East conflict. It signals sustained Asian demand pull on JKM-linked pricing and potential competition for flexible Atlantic cargoes. Read →
TTF September contract trades just shy of EUR 60/MWh and is headed for a weekly gain of 6% amid geopolitical tensions, infrastructure issues and storage levels lagging last year at around 59% full. Europe may attract more US LNG cargoes from October plus diverted shipments, potentially easing some near-term supply concerns. The backwardated curve and tight LNG availability continue to pressure refill economics. Read →
Laden LNG transits through the Panama Canal rose to 11 in July from six in June, the highest in nearly three years, driven by sustained Asian netback premiums attracting cargoes. Traders are routing more volumes eastward rather than around the Cape. This supports JKM relative strength versus TTF and highlights ongoing arb opportunities between basins. Read →
EU storage sits near 59% full with injections lagging historical averages due to tight LNG availability and a backwardated TTF curve that reduces incentive to inject. Northwest Europe faces particular pressure on refill pace ahead of winter. The shortfall raises the call for higher LNG imports to meet targets and supports firmer TTF pricing. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM proposes forcing data centers onto backup generators in emergencies after auction shortfall of 6.8 GW.
Tim McLaughlin · Reuters · Thu, Aug 13, 5:58 PM ET
PJM Interconnection proposed a framework requiring data centers and large loads to switch to backup generators when grid supply tightens, prioritizing traditional customers. The move follows a recent capacity auction that hit the $325/MW-day cap but cleared 6.8 GW short of the reliability target. PJM also seeks a registry tracking data-center locations and usage to manage growing AI-driven demand across its 13-state footprint. Read →
Coal
What's moving · India's planned coal mining capacity nearly doubled in 2025, driving global project pipeline up 11% to 2,521 mtpa.
India's proposed coal mine capacity rose to 638 mtpa from 329 mtpa a year earlier, accounting for nearly all of the global increase. The expansion targets higher domestic output of 1.15 billion tons this fiscal year amid strong power demand. Most new projects are in Jharkhand and Odisha, signaling sustained supply growth for thermal and metallurgical coal. Read →
Cumulative thermal coal throughput at India's 12 major state ports rose just under 5% year-on-year in April-July to 46.05 million tons. The gain occurred despite weaker imports, driven partly by coastal movement of domestic coal. India's coal-fired power generation hit a July record of 114.7 TWh, up 13% on the year, on weak monsoon and high cooling demand. Read →
An explosives attack halted rail operations at Glencore's Cerrejón coal mine in Colombia. The incident disrupts thermal coal exports from one of the country's largest producers. No immediate details on duration or impact volume were reported. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA August WASDE cuts U.S. corn yield to 180.7 bpa, sparking corn futures rally despite higher acres.
USDA pegged 2026/27 U.S. corn yield at 180.7 bushels per acre, down from 183 in July and below the 182.5 bpa analyst average. December corn futures rose to a near three-week high after the report. Lower yields signal tighter stocks even as production stays near record levels. Read →
USDA raised corn exports 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion while cutting ending stocks 137 million bushels to 1.7 billion. Wheat production fell 5 million bushels and ending stocks dropped to 717 million. Soybean production rose to 4.5 billion bushels on added acres. Read →
Private exporters reported sales of 4.6 million bushels of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery. The sale supports soybean demand amid the new-crop outlook. Weekly export reports continue to show China as a buyer of U.S. beans. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Australia's A$2.5bn Tomago aluminium smelter bailout and LME aluminium stocks at 36-year low drive the complex.
Australian federal and NSW governments pledged A$2.5bn ($1.77bn) plus Rio Tinto's A$1.1bn investment for a 10-year renewable PPA securing the 590kt/yr Tomago smelter until 2038. The deal supports jobs and decarbonisation while aluminium prices face Middle East supply risks and Indonesian expansion. It underscores government intervention to sustain domestic aluminium capacity amid energy and geopolitical pressures. Read →
Andy Home · Reuters · Thu, Aug 13, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
LME registered aluminium stocks fell by half since January to 250kt, the lowest since 1990, after 2Mt/yr of Gulf primary output collapsed from the Iran conflict. Nearly all remaining warranted metal is pre-sanctions Russian brand held by one dominant player, tightening physical liquidity despite relaxed spreads. The drawdown highlights persistent supply-chain dislocation even as some Middle East capacity restarts. Read →
Combined LME and SHFE copper inventories fell to 274kt, their lowest share of global stocks, as COMEX holdings rose to a record 666kt on pre-tariff stockpiling. The 12-week decline tightens availability outside the US amid mine supply constraints and strong energy-transition demand. This divergence underscores regional inventory shifts pressuring physical premiums elsewhere. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore at $95.05/t on Aug 13 as China construction demand worries weigh on miners like Vale.
Vale New York shares dropped 4.30% to $13.80 on Thursday amid trader caution over Chinese construction activity. Iron ore is overwhelmingly a China story as the country buys more than two-thirds of seaborne supply. The move highlights fresh concerns about steel consumption in the property sector. Read →
Iron ore futures climbed above CNY 710 per ton, recovering from multi-month lows. Port inventories at major Chinese ports edged down to around 156.8 million tons. Daily hot metal production rose to 2.38 million tons while mill profitability improved to 33.77%. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold slips on profit-taking after two-month high as tame US inflation eases near-term rate-hike bets.
Net central-bank purchases hit 289t in Q2 2026, the strongest second-quarter total on record and up sharply from Q1's revised 57t. Poland led with 51t and China added 33t; other buyers included Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan while sales moderated. Survey shows 89% of reserve managers expect global reserves to rise and a record 45% plan to increase their own holdings over the next year. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Buyers stockpile erbium and other niche rare earths ahead of November China export restriction deadline.
European erbium prices have jumped about 50% since early June and Chinese prices about 40% as buyers build inventories ahead of the November 10 expiration of suspended Chinese export restrictions on erbium and similar elements. Argus rare earths pricing lead Maeve Flaherty said market participants expect reimposition of controls that would cut off supply outside China. Holmium prices rose 25% and ytterbium 75% over the same period amid the uncertainty. Read →
Maryam Mahboob, Francesca M.S. Guerrero, Aaron C. Mandelbaum · Thompson Hine · Thu, Aug 13, 2026
The Bureau of Industry and Security issued a temporary final rule requiring US persons selling black mass from lithium-ion battery scrap and tungsten waste/scrap to allocate 100% of sales to other US persons starting August 27, 2026, unless licensed. The one-year measure under the Defense Production Act aims to secure domestic supply of recoverable critical minerals and materials essential to national defense amid heavy import reliance. Read →
Erbium oxide prices in Europe have risen sharply on stockpiling ahead of the potential November return of Chinese export restrictions suspended for one year. Argus Media data cited in the report shows buyers acting on expectations that controls on erbium and related materials will resume and cut off non-Chinese supply. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz uncertainty and reopening hopes lift VLCC rates sharply while Baltic Dry Index falls to 2,844 on Aug 13.
Baltic Exchange West Africa-China VLCC TCE index hit $188,957 per day, up 92% week-on-week and highest since March. US Gulf-China index rose to $154,987 per day, up 46% w/w. Tonnage shifts toward Middle East amid stop-start Hormuz traffic, tightening effective capacity outside the strait. Read →
The Baltic Exchange dry bulk index fell for the fourth session to 2,844 points, lowest since Aug 3. Capesize slipped 5.2% to 4,469 points and Panamax fell 1.7% to 2,262 points, while supramax edged up 0.6% to 1,613 points. Read →
Drewry's World Container Index rose 1% to $4,339 per 40ft container. Transpacific rates strengthened, with Shanghai-New York up 10% to $8,706 and Shanghai-Los Angeles up 6% to $6,244 per 40ft. Asia-Europe rates declined, Shanghai-Genoa down 8% to $5,080. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU carbon prices hover near 6-month highs near €82.70 as German national price freeze and California MDI pushback emerge.
Germany’s federal cabinet approved reforms keeping the national carbon price in the €55-65 per tonne range through 2027. The move follows the EU’s one-year delay of ETS2 to 2028 and extends the existing fixed-price corridor. It caps costs for transport and heating fuels while reducing near-term auction revenue for climate programs. Read →
Fifteen California Assembly Democrats wrote to Speaker Robert Rivas asking the chamber to curtail the Manufacturing Decarbonization Incentive approved by CARB. The MDI would issue 118 million additional allowances to qualifying manufacturers through 2030. Lawmakers argue it diverts auction revenue from Tier 3 climate programs under SB 840. Read →
Assemblymember Damon Connolly led 15 Democrats in a letter to Speaker Rivas seeking action to shield billions in cap-and-invest auction proceeds. They target the MDI for redirecting allowances to industrial emitters instead of climate projects. The push comes ahead of the planned September 1 implementation of CARB’s reforms. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Tokenized gold yield products and KRW fund pilots drive RWA expansion as Tether audit clears.
Enhanced launched the PAXG Volatility Income/Yield Vault on Ethereum, the first in its Thesis Vaults series. Depositors lock PAXG and the vault sells bi-weekly out-of-the-money covered calls via RFQ auctions to institutional makers, distributing USDC premiums every two weeks. The product targets 4-14% annualized yield depending on volatility while preserving upside exposure up to the strike, addressing the zero-yield nature of the $5B tokenized gold market. Read →
Shinhan Asset Management signed an MOU with Plume Network for a proof-of-concept on KRW-denominated tokenized funds backed by ultra-short-term won bonds in an offshore jurisdiction. The PoC will test issuance, distribution, KYC/AML, whitelist transfers, and on-chain operations modeled on BlackRock's BUIDL, with no domestic resident participation. Plume holds an SEC-registered Transfer Agent license and participates in DTCC's digital assets working group. Read →
Tether announced KPMG US issued an unqualified opinion on its full 2025 financial statements, the company's first comprehensive independent audit covering balance sheet, income, cash flows, and token backing. The audit verified assets supporting issued tokens including expanded XAUt gold reserves that rose 9.5% in Q2. This milestone follows years of attestations and supports regulatory compliance efforts for the largest stablecoin issuer. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · TMC the metals company reports Q2 net loss of $60.1M as it advances U.S. seabed nodule projects and government funding talks.
TMC the metals company reported a Q2 2026 net loss of $60.1 million ($0.14 per share) on $20.1 million cash used in operations, with liquidity at $143 million. The firm progressed U.S. government funding processes for nodule processing/refining capacity, signed an MSA with Mariana Minerals for a Texas industry park at Port of Brownsville, and advanced NOAA permit applications for USA-A and USA-B areas holding over 1.6 billion tonnes of polymetallic nodules. Partnerships with Allseas and Eco Minerals support offshore collection system development targeted for 2027 commissioning. Read →
Magna Mining reported record Q2 2026 results from its McCreedy West mine in Sudbury, processing 98,446 tons at 3.34% CuEq grade for 4.5 million CuEq payable pounds. The company achieved record cash margin of $8.9 million CAD, positive free cash flow of $5.1 million CAD, and lowered costs, while on track for full-year guidance of 16-18 million CuEq payable pounds. It also announced a planned strategic investment by Alpayana and a CFO transition. Read →
Grit Metals appointed Jake Clark, previously VP Exploration, as CEO and director effective immediately, with Jeremy Poirier moving to Chairman. The change positions the company for its next phase of lithium-cesium-tantalum pegmatite exploration in Finland. Read →
Xtra-Gold Resources reported Q2 2026 net income of $1.2 million, contributing to over $2.4 million for the first half, with total assets of $20.6 million in cash, securities, and gold inventory and zero debt. The company highlighted ongoing drilling at its Kibi Gold Project in Ghana to expand resources. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · EU solar inverter curbs and stalled Alaska LNG bill drive regulation focus amid Russia nuclear uncertainty.
Danny Callaghan · Reuters · Thu, Aug 13, 7:08 AM ET
The EU ban on public funding for utility-scale solar inverters from high-risk countries including China shifts demand to European makers like SMA Solar. CEO Jürgen Reinert said it could give SMA about 10% share in the EU utility-scale market, affecting at least 14 GW of projects. Chinese firms had supplied roughly 70% of Europe's inverters in recent years. Read →
Kate Abnett, Forrest Crellin · Reuters · Thu, Aug 13, 9:18 AM ET
Urenco CEO Boris Schucht said lack of EU clarity on banning Russian nuclear fuel is holding back European uranium enrichment investments. Russia still supplies 23% of EU enrichment services despite vows to phase out Russian energy. A US 2028 ban could redirect Russian material to Europe if the EU does not act. Read →
Curtis Williams, Timothy Gardner · Reuters · Thu, Aug 13, 2:18 PM ET
Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy called the legislature's failure to advance a tax change for the $50 billion Alaska LNG project a negative signal to investors. The bill stalled without enough votes; Dunleavy urged a special session on Aug. 20. The project aims to export up to 20 million tons per year of LNG starting in 2031. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders note Brent near $87 and WTI around $81 after recent gains, with profit-taking following a large US inventory build and no new escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. The standoff with Iran continues to constrain regional exports, keeping supply risks in focus despite the pullback. Market reports from IEA and OPEC are awaited for updates on disruptions and demand. Read →
Global monitored copper stocks fell to 940kt, with LME and SHFE holdings at just 274kt amid ongoing production issues in Chile and Peru. US COMEX stocks surged to a record 666kt from pre-tariff buying, tightening supply elsewhere and supporting prices near recent highs. Codelco's retained profits add to investment expectations in the sector. Read →
Spot gold trades near $4,300-$4,400 after pulling back from peaks, with ETF inflows continuing and investors focusing on lower Fed hike odds. Profit-taking follows strong runs, but the backdrop of demand and official buying remains supportive. Silver and other precious metals see similar consolidation. Read →
WTI fell about 1.8% to near $82 while Brent eased, as markets digest stalled US-Iran progress alongside persistent Strait of Hormuz issues. Geopolitical risk stays the key driver for energy traders watching supply constraints. Profit-taking follows earlier spikes tied to the tensions. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Sparta Commodities senior oil market analyst June Goh discusses movements in the oil market amid the ongoing Mideast conflict. The segment references the IEA's updated view of a significantly wider supply deficit this quarter despite demand impacts from the conflict. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.