Last price as of Wed, Jul 8, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude up $4.70 (+6.6%) on US revoking Iran's oil export license and fresh strikes amid Strait of Hormuz attacks. Dutch TTF up $2.69 (+5.8%) on Qatari LNGtanker attack in Strait of Hormuz and renewed Middle East tensions. Palladium down $62 (-4.9%) on broader precious metals selloff amid risk-off moves and stronger dollar. Platinum down $78 (-4.7%) on broader precious metals weakness tied to US-Iran tensions and macro pressure. Cotton up $3.17 (+4.1%) on crude oil rally boosting fiber substitution concerns and short covering. Silver down $2.45 (-4.0%) on risk-off selling and stronger dollar as stocks and precious metals fall together.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends long front-month natural gas calendar spread versus crude on persistent European storage deficits and LNG supply risks.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Oil futures jumped sharply after the U.S. revoked Iran's license to sell oil following attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI rose 5.3% to $72.20 a barrel and Brent gained 5.6% to $75.99, reversing earlier supply-normalization gains. Read →
The U.S. launched strikes on over 80 Iranian sites and revoked a waiver allowing new Iranian oil sales after tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The moves further imperil a fragile ceasefire reached last month. Read →
Brent crude climbed to $75.89 a barrel and WTI to $72.01 after U.S. strikes on Iran and reimposed sanctions on Tehran oil sales. Four tankers turned back from the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened risks. Read →
Sempra Infrastructure's Energía Costa Azul LNG plant exported its first cargo aboard the Pacific Success tanker late Tuesday. The shipment offers relief to markets strained by Iran war supply disruptions. Read →
Vietnam's government is considering additional coal-fired plants to secure power supply. The Iran conflict has complicated LNG import plans and heightened energy security concerns. Read →
Erin Hale, John Power · Al Jazeera · Wed, Jul 8, 2026
Brent crude rose more than 3% to $76.48 per barrel, the highest since June 23, after the US launched strikes on Iran and revoked a sanctions waiver on Iranian oil sales. The moves followed attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which the US blamed on Iran and described as a ceasefire violation. Renewed supply disruption fears through the key waterway drove the rebound from pre-war price levels. Read →
WTI rose 6.25% to $74.83 per barrel and Brent jumped 6% to $78.64 per barrel after President Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire is over and the US conducted strikes on Iran. The escalation followed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the US Treasury's revocation of a waiver allowing Iranian oil sales. Markets reacted to heightened risks of renewed Middle East supply disruptions. Read →
API data showed US crude stocks fell 399,000 barrels in the week to July 3, extending a multi-month draw, while gasoline and distillate inventories also declined sharply. SPR stocks continued to deplete with another 6.2 million barrels released. The draws occurred even as some Hormuz tanker traffic resumed, underscoring tight US market conditions ahead of fresh geopolitical risks. Read →
The US revoked a temporary license authorizing Iranian oil sales through August and launched strikes on Iran following attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The waiver had been part of a June interim deal reopening the waterway. Oil prices rose on the renewed escalation and sanctions reinstatement, threatening the fragile truce. Read →
The US military struck Iran and revoked the general license permitting Iranian crude and product sales after three tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran was given until July 17 to wind down transactions. The actions followed a fragile June ceasefire and raised fresh risks of supply disruptions through the vital chokepoint. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Futures near $3.28 as falling output and rising LNG flows support prices amid mixed weather.
EIA raised its 2026 Henry Hub forecast while projecting a 2027 decline as production growth outpaces demand gains from record power burn and LNG exports. End-October inventories are seen at 3.97 Tcf. The outlook highlights ample supply capping prices despite rising consumption. Read →
August Nymex natural gas futures rose Tuesday on sustained late-July heat forecasts across much of the US. Comfortable supply fundamentals, including production levels near 109 bcfd and LNG flows, limited gains and kept prices in recent trading ranges. Read →
Next-day physical prices edged higher Tuesday with gains in the Permian Basin and Southern California driven by western heat. Modest weakness appeared in some premium Southeast markets, reflecting regional demand variations. Read →
A 96% jump in wind generation during the latest EIA storage week limited natural gas-fired power output, which trailed year-ago levels by 10%. The shift moderated bullish demand signals and pointed to a near-average inventory build. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF surges 5%+ to €49.31/MWh on renewed Middle East tanker attacks and heat-driven demand.
Nigeria's UTM Offshore secured a 15-year gas supply agreement with a joint venture between NNPC Ltd and Seplat Energy, supplying 200 million standard cubic feet per day from the Yoho field. This removes a major obstacle to final investment decision on its $3 billion floating LNG project designed to produce 1.8 million tonnes per year. The FID is now expected in the fourth quarter after previous delays. Read →
Japan’s Inpex Corp signed a 15-year deal with Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. to buy about 1 million tons per year of LNG from the Ruwais LNG project scheduled to start operations in 2028. The long-term contract secures supply for Japanese buyers amid ongoing global market volatility from Middle East disruptions. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Newcastle coal futures hold at $127.50 amid China port price weakness and Vietnam policy shift.
Peabody Energy received US Department of Energy funding to extract rare earth elements and critical minerals from its Powder River Basin coal operations. It is the second US coal miner awarded such support this week. Shares rose briefly on the announcement. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Weather-driven short covering lifts corn, soybeans and coffee futures amid El Niño risks and heat concerns.
Midday weather forecast updates showing extended Midwest heat and drier conditions boosted corn and soybean futures via short covering and technical buying. Traders monitor pollination-stage heat stress in the U.S. Corn Belt and drought impacts on European and Argentine crops. Argentina's 2026/27 soybean output was revised lower to 49 million tons while Brazil's estimate held near prior levels. Read →
Arabica coffee futures jumped as much as 18.5% intraday Monday to $3.57/lb on institutional buying tied to El Niño harvest disruption risks in Brazil; the move was the largest since 2000. Cocoa futures rose 13% to a January high on persistent West African rains and supply worries. Analysts noted no immediate weather damage in Brazil but flagged tight Arabica supplies and potential margin hikes by ICE. Read →
USDA's June 30 quarterly grain stocks and planted acreage reports showed corn stocks at 5.295 billion bushels below estimates, spring wheat plantings at a record-low 42.74 million acres, and soybean acreage slightly above expectations. The surprises shifted trader focus from acreage to weather-driven price action in subsequent sessions. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME base metals hold near recent highs as ShFE nickel volumes surge and US lithium stockpiling advances.
Andy Home · Reuters · Mon, Jul 7, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
ShFE opened its nickel contract to international participants in April, tripling volumes in H1 2026 versus 2025 amid China's Indonesia-linked supply chain. LME nickel volumes rose 22% but ShFE inventories keep building, pointing to two separate physical pricing hubs. The move reflects broader fracturing of global metals benchmarks into regional centers, with copper already showing LME-CME divergence. Read →
The Defense Logistics Agency seeks offers for nearly 36 million pounds of lithium carbonate over five years, worth up to $300 million, per a July 2 tender. The purchase builds US strategic stockpiles to cut critical-mineral supply risks. It underscores government focus on securing battery materials amid energy-transition and defense priorities. Read →
Ioneer signed non-binding MoUs with Korea Overseas Infrastructure & Urban Development Corp and Hyundai Engineering to advance its Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project in Nevada. KIND is evaluating equity investment while Hyundai assesses procurement roles; deals were inked at US DOE offices. The steps move the project closer to a final investment decision and on-site processing. Read →
LME three-month copper settled at $13,365.50, aluminum at $3,137.50, zinc at $3,572, and tin at $53,350 on July 7. Prices reflect steady positioning ahead of potential China demand signals and US policy moves. Nickel and lead also traded near multi-week levels with limited overnight volatility. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · DCE Sep iron ore futures closed 0.47% lower at 735.5 yuan/t amid rising blast furnace maintenance cuts and weak steel demand.
The most active September 2026 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 3.5 yuan to 735.5 yuan per tonne on Tuesday. Trading volume reached 239,496 lots. Weakness reflects softening Chinese steel demand and seasonal factors. Read →
DCE iron ore futures closed lower with spot prices down 1-2 yuan/mt. SMM data shows blast furnace maintenance impact at 1.2637 million mt this week, up 77,800 mt week-on-week and set to rise further. Iron ore demand is expected to contract, pressuring prices in a bearish range. Read →
Imported iron ore inventories at 47 major Chinese ports declined 826,300 tonnes or 0.5% week-on-week to 174.61 million tonnes. The drawdown occurs against a backdrop of subdued domestic steel demand and ongoing blast furnace curtailments. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · China's PBOC added 15 tonnes of gold in June, its largest monthly purchase since 2023, extending its 20-month buying streak.
The People’s Bank of China reported its largest monthly gold reserve increase in over 2.5 years, adding 480,000 troy ounces (about 15 tonnes) to reach 75.44 million ounces. This marks the 20th consecutive month of purchases despite gold prices falling sharply in June. The move underscores ongoing central bank demand as a key structural support for the metal amid price weakness. Read →
Pablo Sinha and Swati Verma · Reuters · Wed, Jul 8, 2026
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,123.55 per ounce after hitting a near one-week low, supported by anticipation of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes. Fresh U.S. strikes on Iran and resulting oil price jumps above 3% introduced inflation concerns that capped gains and boosted rate-hike bets. Silver gained 1.1% while platinum and palladium declined. Read →
Hong Kong launched a central gold clearing system and revived gold futures trading as part of efforts to establish itself as a major regional bullion trading and storage hub. The initiative, backed by major banks, aims to create a comprehensive trading ecosystem in Asia. It coincides with ongoing central bank buying and market volatility in precious metals. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China's rare earth export curbs to Japan drive supply warnings and price signals in heavy REEs.
Firms increasingly cite Beijing's export controls on rare earths, imposed after PM Takaichi's Taiwan comments, as production and earnings risks. Tokyo pursues G7/U.S. alternatives and recycling to cut dependence. Controls target heavy REEs vital for magnets in EVs, defense and electronics. Read →
Japan expands recycling of neodymium, dysprosium and other REEs from EVs, motors and electronics to secure supplies and reduce China reliance. Heavy rare earth export bans highlight processing bottlenecks outside China. Moves include government-backed collection, disassembly and extraction infrastructure. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index surges 2.8% to near 1-month high at 2,875 on capesize gains from iron ore and coal demand.
The Baltic Dry Index climbed 78 points to 2,875 on July 7, extending gains. Capesize rates led the advance amid stronger iron ore and coal fixtures in the Atlantic and Pacific. The move lifts the benchmark to its highest level since early June. Read →
Super Typhoon Bavi is tracking toward Taiwan and eastern China, with landfall expected around July 10. Strong winds and heavy rain risk closing or slowing operations at major ports including Ningbo and Shanghai, disrupting dry bulk and container flows. Commodity discharges for iron ore, coal and other cargoes face delays while vessel supply tightens across the Pacific. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs hold near €80/t as EC official floats boosting national ETS revenue spend on covered industries amid reform prep.
A European Commission official proposed directing a larger share of EU ETS auction revenues back to industries facing carbon costs. This comes as the Commission prepares its July ETS review proposals. The move could ease compliance burdens and influence allowance demand dynamics in the compliance market. Read →
EU carbon allowances reversed prior gains with persistent selling despite impending REPowerEU auction volume cuts. Energy prices rose after an LNG tanker attack. The price action highlights short-term volatility ahead of structural reforms. Read →
A non-profit filed a legal challenge against the California Air Resources Board's approval of Cap-and-Invest amendments. It claims inadequate analysis of environmental and fiscal effects. The case could delay or alter the program's implementation and allowance supply. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Ondo launches on-chain perps platform competing with Hyperliquid, trading tokenized stocks, gold, silver and oil.
Ondo Finance launched its on-chain perpetuals platform Ondo Preps on July 7, enabling up to 20x leverage trading of tokenized U.S. stocks including SpaceX, Nvidia and others, plus gold, silver, oil and indices. The platform accepts tokenized stocks as collateral and directly challenges Hyperliquid and Coinbase in the RWA perps space. It expands 24/7 on-chain access to commodity and equity derivatives amid growing regulatory clarity. Read →
RWA INC announced on July 7 the integration of Ondo Finance's institutional tokenized real-world assets onto its stocks.rwa.inc platform. The move indexes eligible Ondo-issued tokenized securities for better visibility and discovery by investors and institutions. It reflects expanding demand for unified marketplaces as tokenized securities proliferate across blockchains. Read →
On-chain tokenized equity trading volume hit a record $3.86 billion in June, up 145% from May, fueled by SpaceX (SPCX) tokens which accounted for $1.19 billion or 31% of the total. Tokenized equities expansion highlights growing on-chain activity in pre-IPO and public assets. Broader tokenized RWA market cap reached a new high of $30.1 billion, with equities contributing significantly alongside commodities. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Oil price surge from Iran tensions drives Exxon earnings boost and LNG/gas deals.
Trans Mountain Corporation reached a settlement with oil shippers covering the substantial majority of contracted volumes after 18 months of negotiations. The agreement resolves a tolling dispute on the Canadian government-owned pipeline and has been submitted to the Canada Energy Regulator for approval. It clears a hurdle for potential equity sale and further expansions. Read →
ExxonMobil signaled that oil price changes from the U.S.-Iran conflict will boost its Q2 upstream earnings by $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion. Geopolitical tensions have injected a risk premium into oil markets, with Brent recently climbing sharply. The update highlights the direct earnings sensitivity for major producers amid supply disruption fears. Read →
Australia's competition regulator ordered a second-phase review of the proposed Subsea7-Saipem merger over concerns it could reduce competition in offshore oil and gas services. The deal has faced opposition from ExxonMobil and other operators. The in-depth inquiry will examine competitive effects in subsea infrastructure markets. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US reinstates sanctions on Iranian oil sales after tanker attacks, lifting oil prices over 5%.
Steve Holland and Jarrett Renshaw · Reuters · Tue, Jul 7, 6:53 PM ET
The US Treasury revoked the general license authorizing Iranian oil sales through August 21, shortening the wind-down to July 17 after attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rose more than 5% on the news. The move threatens an interim diplomatic understanding between Washington and Tehran while negotiations continue. Read →
Prethika Nair and Liang Lei · Argus Media · Mon, Jul 6
Singapore and Indonesia signed agreements on July 6 to advance cross-border low-carbon electricity trade, with Indonesia's Danantara appointing MoUs with Singapore firms for 3.4 GW or more of projects by 2035. The countries will harmonize regulatory frameworks and develop a Renewable Energy Certificate system. Pricing negotiations remain ongoing under Indonesian regulations. Read →
President Trump signed an executive order extending the pause on country-specific reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1 and sent letters to 14 countries with planned rates of 25% to 40%. The delay offers hope for deals to major partners but leaves smaller exporters uncertain. Trump stated no further extensions will be granted. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Ukrainian long-range drones struck the Omsk refinery (Russia's largest, 2,500-2,700 km from frontlines) on July 6, damaging a major distillation unit (CDU-10, 38% capacity) and forcing shutdown of processing and fuel sales. Traders on X and r/oil discuss resulting fuel shortages, civil unrest at Russian gas stations, and supply disruptions hitting Kremlin hard; one of deepest strikes yet, amplifying energy market volatility. Read →
Oil surged on news of the fragile Iran ceasefire breaking down, with ongoing Hormuz/Strait tensions and ship attacks. Commodity strategist Ole S Hansen and traders note quick price response despite prior calm; impacts energy markets broadly as supply risks rise amid geopolitical flare-ups. Read →
Analysts and traders highlight early-stage broad rotation in commodities (metals like gold/silver/copper, energy/oil, agriculture) moving in tandem. Technical breakouts noted especially in ag; physical metal outflows from COMEX (hundreds of tonnes gold/silver) and low open interest signal strong underlying demand vs paper market weakness. Read →
Traders note gold/silver still correcting technically but nearing potential end, with physical drain from COMEX vaults accelerating. Miners seen as extremely cheap for adding positions amid rotation; caution advised but structural setups strengthening for precious metals. Read →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.