Last price as of Thu, Jun 25, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Cotton down $3.08 (-3.9%) on US cotton futures posting midweek losses amid broader commodity weakness. Cocoa up $138 (+2.7%) on heavy rains in Ivory Coast flooding roads and threatening supplies. Tin (SHFE $/mt) down $1254 (-2.5%) on broad SHFE base metals decline. Aluminium (SHFE $/mt) down $65 (-2.1%) on broad SHFE base metals decline. Nat Gas up $0.068 (+2.1%) on heat wave forecasts boosting demand. Copper (SHFE $/mt) down $236 (-1.8%) on broad SHFE base metals decline.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Brent crude has dropped below $72.48 a barrel, returning to levels last seen in late February before the Iran conflict. Increased tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is driving the supply recovery. Read →
Brent crude fell toward $73 a barrel, nearly erasing all gains from the conflict as Middle East and African supply surges. Tanker movements through Hormuz have ramped up following US-Iran peace deal progress. Read →
Brent hit its lowest since February 27 at $72.68 a barrel while WTI fell to $69.58. More tankers are exiting the Strait of Hormuz amid expectations of normalized Gulf flows. Read →
Brent fell 1.1% to around $73.10 a barrel in early trading as tanker traffic resumes through Hormuz. Gulf exports have rebounded to 63% of normal levels per Goldman Sachs analysis. Read →
Copper edged higher after touching a seven-week low, supported by a weakening dollar and AI stock gains. The move followed a 2.1% slump on the London Metal Exchange the prior day. Read →
Brent crude briefly fell below $72.48 a barrel, matching the price the day before US and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February. The drop follows a US-Iran MOU on June 17 that includes partial sanctions relief on Iranian oil exports and a communication line for safe Hormuz passage. Kpler data shows a significant rise in vessels transiting the strait since the agreement, including crude carriers, though volumes remain below pre-war levels. Read →
Alex Longley, Yongchang Chin, Sherry Su, Archie Hunter · Bloomberg · Wed, Jun 24, 2026
A stream of cargoes out of the Strait of Hormuz accelerated after the US-Iran agreement, leaving key market segments suddenly awash in supply. Dated Brent had topped $140 per barrel in early April amid disruptions; reopening is proceeding well and quickly per market participants. Buyers face inundation from Middle East and African offers, driving a dramatic reversal in physical market dynamics. Read →
Crude benchmarks extended losses as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes following the interim US-Iran deal. Brent slid further toward pre-conflict levels amid unwinding of risk premiums built during escalation. The normalization of Gulf flows is reducing supply fears that had supported prices since late February. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Natgas futures climb 2%+ to $3.29 as hotter forecasts lift power-burn demand ahead of storage data.
July NYMEX futures rose 4.5 cents to $3.229/MMBtu at midday on stronger cooling demand from pending heat waves across the mid-Atlantic and Upper Midwest. Traders also noted firm LNG feedgas flows and Henry Hub spot prices edging higher amid the demand outlook shift. Read →
Forward basis in the US Northeast plunged while Waha (Permian) surged over recent weeks due to weather shifts, infrastructure additions, and geopolitical factors affecting LNG-linked demand. These regional moves highlight diverging supply-demand balances between Appalachia and Permian basins. Read →
Gas-fired generation declined from recent peaks during the latest EIA storage week while coal and nuclear output hit post-winter highs to meet rising summer loads. The shift underscores competition among fuel sources even as overall power demand grows. Read →
Trace Midstream announced a 250 MMcf/d gas processing plant in Southeast New Mexico, adding to multiple Permian takeaway projects slated for 2026. The expansion aims to relieve chronic basin constraints and support higher associated gas production. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF at €41/MWh as Asian buyers rebound, tightening LNG competition for Europe's storage injections.
Jera Global CEO Yukio Kani said spot LNG prices will likely stay sticky at relatively high levels due to Middle East supply disruptions and low European gas storage. Platts assessed August JKM at $15.521/MMBtu. This sustains upward pressure on TTF amid competition for cargoes. Read →
Asia's LNG imports surged more than 10% year-over-year in the first half of June after earlier declines, led by India and other markets. Stronger summer cooling demand and a $2/MMBtu JKM premium over TTF drew flexible cargoes east. This risks cutting LNG inflows to Europe and slowing storage injections. Read →
TTF futures for the following month fluctuated between €40 and €42 per MWh through the second half of June. Prices eased from earlier levels but stayed supported by storage refill needs and LNG competition. Current levels reflect balanced but tight fundamentals heading into peak injection season. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM adds capacity advisory for data-center demand tightening supplies without weather triggers.
PJM Interconnection agreed Wednesday to introduce a new capacity advisory warning when supplies could tighten from data-center load growth even absent extreme weather. The move addresses surging AI demand pushing the 13-state grid toward shortages beyond historical hot/cold alerts. It signals structural supply pressure from hyperscale loads independent of seasonal peaks. Read →
Coal
What's moving · China coal-fired power rebounds 1.5-2% in 2026 on El Nino, Iran effects and renewables lag, lifting thermal demand.
Colleen Howe and Sam Li · Reuters · Tue, Jun 24, 2026
China's coal-fired power generation is forecast to rise 1.5-2% this year to 5.4 trillion kWh, with power-sector coal use up 3% to 2.7 billion tons. El Nino-driven heat, Iran-related LNG cuts and slower renewable output growth are boosting thermal demand as power needs climb 5%. S&P Global, WoodMac and Kpler project the rebound after 2025's first drop in a decade. Read →
China Coal Energy reported an 8.1% drop in coal sales for January-May 2026 versus the prior year. The decline reflects softer domestic demand despite broader power-sector rebound signals. Lower sales volumes highlight uneven thermal coal consumption across major producers. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Cocoa jumps 7% as super El Niño fund targets crop risks amid harvest concerns.
Moreton Capital Partners seeks $500 million for a vehicle trading South African corn, Malaysian palm oil and Australian wheat exposed to a potential super El Niño. Co-founder Les Finemore says markets underestimate the weather threat to supplies. The move highlights growing investor focus on climate-driven commodity volatility. Read →
EUDR traceability rules risk excluding small cocoa farmers in Ghana and Ivory Coast from EU markets due to high compliance costs. Buyers may filter out risky suppliers or exit the bloc entirely, fragmenting supply. This occurs as cocoa already faces volatility from prior supply shocks in West Africa. Read →
Illinois Wheat Association President Tracy Heuerman reports strong southern yields and test weights despite recent tornadoes, wind and rain. Harvest is nearly complete in the south but starting north, with rain risking quality delays. Over 80% of state wheat comes from the southern half, supporting double-crop soybeans. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Shanghai tin futures plunge over 3% amid broad base metals weakness and softer demand signals.
Shanghai’s most active tin futures contract fell more than 3%. The drop occurred amid broad weakness across base metals. It reflects weaker industrial demand expectations and cautious sentiment in commodities trading. Read →
LME copper rebounded 0.6% to $13,112.95 per ton. Recovery followed Wednesday’s 2.1% decline to a seven-week low. A weaker US dollar and AI-related stock gains provided support. Read →
LME metal inventories declined across base metals. The drawdown signals tightening physical availability. It supports prices despite near-term demand caution. Read →
Copper rose 0.4% to $13,135 per ton on the LME. Aluminum added 0.2% and nickel 0.6%. Long-term electrification and AI demand continue to underpin the complex. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore slips to $100.52/t on June 24 as Chinese port stocks rise and steel output weakens.
Iron ore prices fell to 100.52 USD per tonne on June 24, down 0.01% from the prior day and 8% over the past month. The benchmark tracks seaborne 62% Fe CFR China deliveries via CFD. Weak Chinese steel output and rising port inventories continue to pressure the market. Read →
Steel futures fell to 3,068 CNY per tonne on June 25, down 0.45% and 2.88% over the past month. China's May crude steel output dropped 2.7% year-on-year to 84.35Mt amid property sector weakness, with exports providing some offset but facing rising trade barriers. Read →
South Korea applied anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel imports from China and Japan while considering a minimum price system. The move targets surging low-priced Chinese exports amid domestic demand weakness and adds to global protectionist pressure on Chinese steelmakers. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold and silver plunge to 7-month lows as stronger dollar and Fed hike bets pressure prices.
Spot gold fell below $4,000/oz to $3,988.60 (down 4%) and silver to $58.44 (down 6%), the lowest since November 2025. The drop stems from a stronger U.S. dollar (DXY up to 101.77) and rising odds of Fed rate hikes this year after the latest FOMC signals. This follows a sharp weekly decline amid tech selloffs and repricing of monetary policy. Read →
Spot gold traded around $3,980/oz (down 0.5%) and silver below $60, with YTD declines of 8% for gold and over 20% for silver. Pressure persists from expectations of tighter Fed policy and inflation concerns, with analysts seeing limited near-term rebound potential. The metals failed to act as typical safe havens during recent equity volatility. Read →
Gold-backed ETFs recorded $1.1 billion in net inflows last week (strongest since mid-April), reversing prior outflows. China imported 163 tonnes of gold in May (highest since March 2024), while central banks and banks like Standard Chartered maintain bullish targets of $4,600, $5,100/oz. The physical and official-sector demand contrasts with paper-market weakness driven by dollar and rate factors. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · NdPr prices rally to highest since 2022 as China adds MP Materials and USA Rare Earth to export control list.
China’s Ministry of Commerce added MP Materials, USA Rare Earth and eight other US firms to its dual-use export control list, barring shipments of Chinese-origin items usable for civilian or military purposes. The move, effective immediately with extraterritorial reach, retaliates against recent US Pentagon blacklisting of Chinese companies. It tightens leverage over rare earth supply chains critical for magnets, defense and EVs despite recent US-China trade truce talks. Read →
Domestic Chinese PrNd oxide prices rallied in recent weeks to around $125/kg, the highest level since 2022, lifting ex-China benchmarks. The surge reflects ongoing supply tightness from prior export controls and strong demand for permanent magnets. It underscores China’s continued dominance in refining and pricing power for key rare earths used in EVs and wind turbines. Read →
Neodymium traded at 992,500 CNY per tonne on June 24, up 2.85% from the prior session and 5.59% over the past month. The benchmark tracks the Chinese domestic market for the key rare earth used in NdFeB permanent magnets. Gains align with broader PrNd complex strength amid export policy signals. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Geopolitical tensions in Middle East drive VLCC and tanker rates sharply higher amid Hormuz risk perception.
VLCC spot rates out of the Middle East Gulf have more than doubled since the Israel-Iran conflict began on June 13, swinging from year-to-date lows to 16-month highs by June 23. Transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain within normal ranges, with weekly volumes 4% above the 2024 average. Rising war risk premiums and potential tonne-mile demand shifts from Asia to Atlantic Basin sources sustain upward pressure on global tanker rates. Read →
VLCC average TCE rates have climbed from $27,670 per day in early June to over $56,480 per day following escalated tensions and Iran's parliament declaration on Hormuz. LR1 and LR2 rates eastbound have risen 66-85% since the conflict onset. Asymmetric disruption risks keep premiums elevated despite low likelihood of full strait closure. Read →
Israeli ports processed 24.3 million tonnes of cargo in the first five months of 2026. The volume figure reflects ongoing operations amid regional shipping route shifts. It provides a benchmark for Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean trade resilience. Read →
Environment
What's moving · RGGI June 3 auction clears at $35/ton, second-highest price ever, with 18.35M allowances sold for $642M.
Biomass-based diesel D4 RINs traded at $2.41 and ethanol D6 RINs at $2.37 as of June 4, near 2021 records. Higher EPA blending targets and wider biodiesel-conventional diesel spreads lifted values. Elevated RIN prices boost biofuel blending economics and support renewable diesel output. Read →
An internal Commission document outlines extending free EU ETS allowances for industries committing to local investments. The proposal forms part of the broader ETS review to balance decarbonization with competitiveness. Changes could ease near-term compliance costs for covered emitters while directing capital domestically. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CME sues CFTC over Kalshi and Coinbase crypto perpetual futures approvals, intensifying regulatory battle for on-chain derivatives.
CME Group sued the CFTC and Chairman Michael Selig, challenging approvals for Kalshi and Coinbase to list perpetual futures contracts. The exchange argues the products are swaps under Dodd-Frank rules, not futures. The suit escalates competition between traditional exchanges and on-chain or prediction-market platforms offering 24/7 leveraged commodity and crypto exposure. Read →
CME filed suit seeking to void CFTC approval for Kalshi’s Bitcoin perpetual futures and similar products. CME claims the regulator misclassified the contracts, exposing markets to swap-like risks. The action highlights growing tension between legacy futures venues and decentralized or crypto-native perpetuals platforms. Read →
Gold and silver prices fell sharply, with tokenized gold volumes on RWA perps platforms like Hyperliquid and Ondo remaining active. RWA perpetual futures volumes hit record highs in May despite broader CEX declines. The moves underscore on-chain commodity markets capturing macro hedging flows as traditional prices correct. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · BHP's new CEO Brandon Craig takes over amid strike threats, cost overruns and M&A opportunities as oil prices dip on Hormuz flows.
Brandon Craig becomes BHP CEO on July 1, confronting threatened iron ore strikes, Jansen project cost blowouts and potential uranium moves. The miner eyes M&A activity while shares retreat from records, highlighting pressures on major commodity producers. Read →
BP takes a 10% stake in the world's largest gas cap development project alongside ADNOC (60%) and other partners. The deal advances UAE gas self-sufficiency and LNG export capacity with significant capex ahead. Read →
WTI crude traded as low as $69.63 a barrel as more tankers moved through the Strait of Hormuz. Cushing inventories hit 12-year lows, pressuring producer margins amid recovering flows. Read →
WTI and Brent benchmarks slid to multi-month lows as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalized post-conflict. The price drop eases input costs for downstream commodity users but squeezes upstream revenues. Read →
Crude held near $74 after the U.S.-Iran interim agreement reopened the Strait of Hormuz to traffic. Prices fell about 4% on the day as supply concerns eased for global energy markets. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · EU finalizes US trade deal with 15% tariff cap; Russia weighs diesel export ban amid refinery attacks.
EU member states gave final approval to the US trade deal. The pact removes EU levies on US industrial goods and some agriculture products. In return, the US will cap tariffs on EU exports at 15%. Read →
Shivangi Acharya and Manoj Kumar · Reuters · Wed, Jun 24, 10:33 AM ET
India's trade minister Piyush Goyal met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. They discussed an interim deal with India seeking tariff advantages over regional exporters. Talks build on February progress but face Section 301 probes and forced-labor tariff proposals. Read →
Deputy PM Alexander Novak said Russia is weighing a full diesel export ban. The move addresses shortages from Ukrainian attacks on refineries. Additional measures include tax changes and possible fuel imports. Read →
Dutch Trade Minister Sjoerd Sjoerdsma met US officials including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The Netherlands opposes expanded US export controls that would further restrict ASML semiconductor equipment sales. Concerns include potential use of the foreign direct product rule. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer and a founding member, warns it may exit the cartel unless its quota is significantly increased to boost revenue amid financial crisis and regional tensions. Traders note this follows UAE's exit, further weakening OPEC cohesion and pressuring oil supply dynamics. Read →
Retail traders post Fibonacci and Elliott Wave buy setups for XAUUSD targeting higher levels like 6465, alongside sell ideas below 4000. Discussions highlight gold as a hedge amid European inflation uncertainty and broader market volatility, with bots and signals active. Read →
Posts focus on US domestic nuclear fuel plays like $LEU amid Russian supply bans and HALEU production advances. Traders note DOE contracts and enrichment capacity as key for energy security, with limited but targeted discussion in commodity circles. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Bart Melek discusses gold price targets exceeding $5,200 once the Iran conflict settles. He highlights how geopolitical resolution could drive precious metals higher amid current market dynamics. Watch/Listen →
Daan Struyven analyzes how accelerating EV adoption, spurred by recent supply disruptions, poses downside risks to global oil demand. He covers the report's implications for oil prices and the broader energy landscape. Watch/Listen →
Francisco Blanch argues oil supplies will normalize as it serves interests of both the US and Iran. He addresses post-conflict market recovery in the energy sector. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.