Last price as of Fri, Jun 26, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Cotton down $3.18 (-4.0%) on a firmer dollar and cheaper synthetics as weak oil drags polyester costs lower. Crude down $2.63 (-3.6%) on easing supply concerns as tankers resume transit through Strait of Hormuz. Wheat down $11 (-1.8%) on weaker oil and reduced war-risk premiums amid US-Iran progress. Iron Ore up $1.7 (+1.8%) on opportunistic restocking by mills and potential supply disruptions from Australia and Brazil, even as the broader trend stays soft. Dutch TTF up $0.65 (+1.6%) on a record-breaking European heatwave lifting gas-for-power demand. Palladium up $19 (+1.6%) as the precious-metals complex finds buying support, with gold bouncing off $4,000.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Brent crude fell 1.3% to $72.88 a barrel and WTI dropped 1.2% to $69.44 as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picked up and trapped Gulf supply began flowing again. Both benchmarks have fallen nearly 30% this month amid the supply recovery. Read →
Saudi Aramco resumed crude loadings at its Ras Tanura terminal on Friday with two VLCCs loading after a near four-month halt tied to the Iran conflict. The move signals Middle East producers ramping up exports despite a recent ship attack in the Strait of Hormuz. Read →
Kazakhstan's Karachaganak field cut crude production by more than a quarter after a Ukrainian drone attack shut down Russia's Orenburg gas processing plant. The field, which accounts for about 10% of Kazakhstan's oil output, reduced oil and condensate to 196,500 bpd. Read →
Saudi Arabia is expected to cut its August Arab Light OSP to Asia by $6.5-8 a barrel to a four-month low amid tumbling spot prices and rising Middle East supplies. Spot Dubai premiums hit six-year lows this week as Hormuz shipments recover. Read →
U.S. natural gas futures settled up as much as 3.8% at $3.343/mmBtu on forecasts for hotter weather boosting power-sector demand. The EIA reported a 76 Bcf storage build, slightly above expectations but in line with seasonal norms. Read →
The UN International Maritime Organization paused its ship-escort operation through the Strait of Hormuz after a Singapore-flagged Evergreen vessel was struck by an unknown object (likely drone) near Oman on a UKMTO-recommended route. Two U.S. officials attributed the attack to Iran, while Tehran warned ships using unauthorized routes face consequences. The pause reignites doubts over the durability of the U.S.-Iran interim deal reopening the strait, even as more stranded tankers exit and Saudi Aramco resumes loading at Ras Tanura. Read →
Brent and WTI have fallen sharply back toward pre-U.S.-Iran war levels just 11 days after the 60-day Hormuz reopening deal, driven by surging tanker transits through the strait. A surge of Gulf supply is hitting the market faster than expected, pressuring prices lower despite the earlier conflict premium. Analysts note the rapid recovery disrupts prior assumptions that supply normalization would take months. Read →
Iraq has considered exiting OPEC if the group does not grant it a significantly higher production quota, according to sources familiar with Baghdad's oil policy. The founding member is weighing all options amid frustration with current limits, following the UAE's recent departure. This adds internal strain to OPEC+ at a time of shifting supply dynamics from the Hormuz reopening. Read →
Brent crude fell about 2% to near $73.84/bbl and WTI to around $70.54/bbl on Friday as more tankers exited the Strait of Hormuz and Aramco resumed loadings. The price drop occurred even after the attack on the Evergreen vessel, with markets focusing on the accelerating supply recovery rather than the isolated incident. Both benchmarks are on track for steep weekly losses. Read →
Natural gas futures rebounded Thursday after an early sell-off from the larger-than-expected storage injection. Traders refocused on forecasts for widespread heat next week, lifting July and August contracts. Read →
EIA reported a 76 Bcf net injection for the week ended June 19, above consensus estimates. Working gas reached 2,835 Bcf, remaining above the five-year average but sending futures lower initially. Read →
Cash prices strengthened Thursday with gains at Gulf Coast hubs driven by LNG export demand and Southern heat. Western cooling eased some pressure while Henry Hub cash topped $3.28. Read →
Lower 48 working gas inventories rose 76 Bcf to 2,835 Bcf for the week ending June 19. Stocks sit 152 Bcf above the five-year average and 49 Bcf below year-ago levels, with East and Midwest leading builds. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF edges higher to 41 EUR/MWh on Hormuz attack fears and slow EU storage injections.
European benchmark TTF futures rose as much as 1.6% after an attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz renewed transit fears. Prices trade in a narrow weekly range but sit over 25% above pre-war levels due to slow storage refill ahead of winter. Read →
EU gas storage stood at 50 bcm or 46% of capacity on June 23, down 10.6 bcm year-on-year and 15 bcm below the five-year average. Slow summer injections from tight LNG markets and a backwardated curve point to end-October fill of only 75-78%. Read →
The Platts JKM benchmark fell 1.06% to 15.39 USD/MMBTU on June 25. The move tracks softer Asian spot demand and cargo flows amid the TTF-JKM arb and ongoing Middle East shipping constraints. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Asia seaborne thermal coal imports surge to six-month high on China buying and LNG price fallout from Iran conflict.
Asia seaborne thermal coal imports are on track for 77.37 million tons in June, up from 68.39 million in May and 22% higher year-over-year per Kpler data. China leads with 27.65 million tons expected, a six-month high and 48% above last June, as domestic output fell 1.7% in May amid safety inspections after a fatal mine accident while thermal power generation rose. Japan and South Korea imports also climbed sharply, driven by energy security needs after LNG prices surged from the Iran conflict, making coal more competitive. Read →
China's new five-year energy plan leaves room for coal consumption growth, prioritizing energy security over climate goals per National Energy Administration head Wang Hongzhi. The strategy helped withstand the supply shock from the Iran war. This signals continued policy support for coal in the world's largest energy market. Read →
Indonesia's energy ministry said on June 26 there is no plan for new export restrictions, focusing instead on enforcing domestic market obligation rules for PLN power plants amid Java blackouts. Temporary holds on some shipments were adjusted and exports are now proceeding normally as domestic supply improves. The move eases seaborne market uncertainty after earlier comments raised 2022-style ban fears. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA export sales show strong new-crop soybean demand from China and Mexico amid quiet grains trade.
Net soybean sales for 2025/26 hit 455,400 metric tons, up 7% week-over-week and 50% above the four-week average, led by unknown destinations, Algeria, Mexico, Colombia and Malaysia. New-crop 2026/27 soybean sales reached 902,200 tons, including to China. Corn net sales fell 36% to 743,100 tons for the old crop while wheat net sales totaled 504,500 tons. Read →
New-crop US soybean sales to China increased, lifting accumulated totals toward 12 million tons. The data provides a positive signal for US exporters ahead of the new marketing year. Read →
December wheat futures gained 5.5 US cents per bushel on US export sales up 26% week-over-week and nearly double year-over-year. Sales supported prices despite broader market trends. Read →
Accumulated US soybean sales to China for the new season reached 11.96 million tons including outstanding balances as of the week ending June 18. Figures remain below the full 12 million ton target. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Base metals slide as LME copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, tin all fall 1-2% overnight on stronger dollar and risk-off sentiment.
Emirates Global Aluminium inaugurated its Al-Taweelah recycling plant in Abu Dhabi with 185,000 t/yr capacity for low-carbon recycled aluminum from scrap. Delayed by a March missile strike, the facility supports EGA's push into secondary aluminum and circular economy goals. It boosts supply of lower-carbon metal amid energy-transition demand. Read →
Overnight, a weaker US dollar index supported base metals, with LME copper and aluminum rising more than 2%. LME tin, stainless steel and SHFE gold also gained over 1%. The move followed earlier dollar-driven weakness and reflects improved sentiment for dollar-denominated industrial metals. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore futures slide to $96.95/t SGX on seasonal China demand weakness and narrowing mill margins, heading for seventh straight weekly loss.
SGX iron ore futures fell to $96.95 a ton intraday on Friday, the lowest since February, down 1.5% for the week. Seasonal demand weakness in China and narrower steel mill margins drove the decline, with prices on track for a second consecutive monthly drop. Read →
Incoming BHP CEO Brandon Craig is splitting the Americas oversight role effective July 1 ahead of his start date. Jessica Farrell will lead North America operations as the miner sharpens focus on regional growth amid iron ore market pressures. Read →
BHP announced the split of its President Americas position into separate North and South America roles as part of leadership changes. The move comes as the major iron ore producer prepares for its incoming CEO transition. Read →
DCE iron ore CNY contract closed at 735 CNY per ton, down 1.21% on the day and 5.89% for the month. Weak Chinese steel demand and broader market softening pressured the benchmark 62% Fe pricing. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Dollar strength and hawkish Fed bets drive gold below $4,000 and pressure PGMs.
ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA) begins administering LBMA platinum and palladium price auctions and benchmarks on July 1, 2026, replacing the London Metal Exchange. The shift aligns PGM pricing with gold and silver under a single transparent administrator. It improves market reference prices used for contracts, risk management, and trading in platinum and palladium. Read →
Russia's Norilsk Nickel projects a 300,000-ounce global palladium surplus for 2026. The outlook follows expected production levels and points to easing supply tightness after years of deficits. A surplus could weigh on palladium prices amid softer auto and investment demand. Read →
The World Platinum Investment Council notes a hawkish US Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh adds downward pressure via stronger dollar and higher yields. Platinum prices have fallen 17% year-to-date with ETF holdings down. Fundamentals remain resilient with potential investor re-engagement by late 2026 after geopolitical easing. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China adds MP Materials and USA Rare Earth to export control list, barring dual-use sales.
China added 10 US entities including rare earth firms MP Materials and USA Rare Earth to its export control list effective June 22, prohibiting dual-use item exports. The targeted measure responds to recent US actions on Chinese military-linked companies. It heightens pressure on non-Chinese rare earth and magnet supply chains for defense and EVs. Read →
Navin Agarwal is personally investing ₹1,250 crore in NAN MagneTech to build a 1,200 tpa NdFeB magnet plant in Andhra Pradesh, targeting expansion to 10,000 tpa. The venture seeks India's PLI incentives and has secured Australian REE supply contracts plus expert advisors including NdFeB inventor Masato Sagawa. It advances friend-shoring of permanent magnet capacity away from China dominance. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · VLCC rates spike on Hormuz uncertainty as Baltic Dry Index falls to 2,591.
Baltic Dry Index declined 43 points Thursday to 2,591, its lowest since April 17. Capesize index fell 3.1% to 3,827 points while supramax slipped 0.9% to 1,678; panamax rose 1.2% to 2,096 points. The move marks the fourth consecutive daily decline in the dry-bulk benchmark. Read →
Baltic Dry Index fell 1.63% to 2,591 points on June 25. Capesize slumped 3.1% and supramax 0.9% while panamax gained 1.2%. The index is down 16% over the past month but remains 67% higher year-over-year. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU pushes dynamic ETS supply controls and liquidity safeguards in July 15 reform review.
The European Commission will propose changes to the Market Stability Reserve design and thresholds in its July 15 EU ETS review. Dynamic controls aim to automatically adjust allowance supply and prevent price spikes or illiquidity. This targets the bloc's flagship carbon market covering power, industry and aviation emissions. Read →
EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said the resignation of UK PM Keir Starmer requires recalibrating linkage talks between the EU and UK ETS. The EU needs time to assess impacts from British political developments. Linkage would expand cross-border trading and price signals for emissions allowances. Read →
Vietnam's pilot ETS begins next week with 92 companies in power, steel and cement sectors trading quotas. About 511 million tons CO2e allowances are allocated for 2025-2026. Participants include Hoa Phat Group, Formosa Ha Tinh Steel and Vietnam Electricity. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Invesco files SEC-registered tokenized stablecoin-reserve money market fund on public blockchain.
Invesco filed Wednesday with the SEC to register the Invesco Stablecoin Reserves Onchain Fund, a Rule 2a-7 government money market fund investing in cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries to back payment stablecoins under the GENIUS Act. Shares will be tokenized on a public blockchain with Superstate as sub-transfer agent maintaining the on-chain registry. The move expands Invesco's tokenization push after managing Superstate's USTB fund and joins filings from BlackRock, State Street and others targeting stablecoin reserves projected to reach trillions. Read →
Invesco submitted a post-effective amendment to launch the Invesco Stablecoin Reserves Onchain Fund under its Short-Term Investments Trust, targeting a stable $1 NAV with 93-day or shorter Treasuries and repos. Superstate will handle blockchain-integrated share recording on a public chain, extending their March partnership on the $900M+ USTB tokenized fund. The filing positions Invesco in a crowded field of asset managers building on-chain reserve vehicles for stablecoin issuers amid GENIUS Act implementation. Read →
The $2.45 trillion manager filed a Form N-1A amendment June 24 to add the Invesco Stablecoin Reserves Onchain Fund series, which will hold cash, short-term Treasuries and repos to meet GENIUS Act reserve standards for stablecoins. Shares will be recorded as tokens on public blockchains via Superstate's infrastructure, building on Invesco's takeover of the USTB tokenized Treasury fund. The vehicle aims to provide compliant, liquid reserve management for stablecoin issuers seeking yield and regulatory alignment. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Geopolitics and M&A speculation drive commodity corporate moves as US-Iran oil license and Exxon LNG interest dominate headlines.
ExxonMobil is discussing potential acquisitions of Asia-Pacific LNG producers such as Australia's Woodside Energy. Renewables growth and battery storage advances undermine the long-term case for such LNG deals. Any purchase risks disappointing returns for the $574 billion major. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · China adds 10 US firms including rare earth miners MP Materials and USA Rare Earth to export control list.
Canada announced a provisional 10% safeguard tariff on imports of canned vegetables effective immediately for a maximum of 200 days. It excludes the US, Mexico, Israel, Chile and developing countries. The measure addresses challenges to domestic producers while an inquiry by the Canadian International Trade Tribunal proceeds. Read →
The IMF reported energy and commodity prices have fallen since the US-Iran agreement halting hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Spokeswoman Julie Kozack noted it will take time for prices and Gulf trade flows to normalize. The Fund will update its World Economic Outlook on July 8, reviewing growth scenarios tied to the conflict. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders note gold correcting lower with funds and speculators selling while official sector buyers, especially central banks, continue accumulating through the dip. This follows record central bank purchases in prior years. The dynamic underscores gold's structural bull market supported by monetary factors despite short-term pressure from hawkish Fed expectations. Read →
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation reported the official selling price for Kuwaiti crude fell $2.63 to $76.81 per barrel. This aligns with broader Brent and WTI declines amid easing geopolitical tensions and ample supply signals. Traders in energy markets are watching for impacts on producer revenues and global benchmarks. Read →
r/oil users discuss current WTI and Brent levels, inventory data, and geopolitical factors like Hormuz traffic in the daily megathread. Focus remains on price direction amid low SPR levels and demand resilience. The thread highlights retail trader sentiment on energy volatility. Read →
Gold began trading at a premium in India for the first time in weeks as local prices corrected and buying interest picked up. Demand in China remains subdued. Traders note shifting physical market dynamics in a key consumer region during the global correction. Read →
Users in r/Gold share views on the price decline, comparing it to past cycles like 2008 or 2011 and debating if it signals a deeper pullback. Emphasis on long-term holding and central bank demand. The thread captures retail metals investor sentiment amid volatility. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, said on Bloomberg Television that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is going well and quickly, flooding markets with supply and weighing on prices. He noted refined product markets are structurally tighter than crude and addressed gasoline price seasonality and lags. Watch/Listen →
Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at J.P. Morgan, said the market has rebalanced through a different mix of demand losses and inventory withdrawals than initially assumed after Strait of Hormuz disruptions. JPM lowered its Brent outlook, now expecting $86/bbl in 3Q26 and $80/bbl in 4Q26. Watch/Listen →
Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered, commented on oil prices falling to levels before the US-Israel war on Iran as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, with supply expectations outweighing demand concerns. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.