Last price as of Fri, Jul 3, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
US equities closed Friday July 3 for the Independence Day holiday. However, CME futures are trading until the afternoon of Friday July 3. So commodity markets are currently open. Oil will continue trading over the weekend in on-chain markets. Silver up $2.02 (+3.3%) on weaker-than-expected US jobs data scaling back Fed rate-hike bets. Dollar weaker as a result, supporting all commodities today. Platinum up $42 (+2.6%) on weaker US dollar and softer rate-hike expectations. Nat Gas up $0.052 (+1.6%) on technical rebound and seasonal cooling demand signals. Gold up $60 (+1.5%) on weaker-than-expected US jobs data dimming Fed hike bets. Tin (SHFE $/mt) up $595 (+1.1%). Aluminium (SHFE $/mt) up $31 (+1.1%).
Kicker: Goldman Sachs favors long copper over aluminium on electrification-driven supply constraints versus Indonesia supply surge.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Canada's federal government and Alberta agreed to support a new crude pipeline carrying about 1 million barrels per day from Alberta's oil sands to the Pacific coast via southwest British Columbia. Construction could start as early as September 2027, with Trans Mountain Corp. and Pembina involved; it requires a carbon-capture project and aims to boost exports to Asia amid U.S. reliance concerns. Read →
Canada announced plans for a new 1-million-barrel-per-day oil pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific coast to increase exports to Asia and reduce U.S. dependence. Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said construction could begin September 2027; Pembina Pipeline holds a 10% stake option, subject to regulatory fast-tracking and Indigenous partnerships. Read →
Natural gas is projected to surpass oil as America's top energy source by the end of the decade, ending petroleum's 75-year dominance after the gap nearly closed in 2025. The shift follows surging gas demand for power generation, including data centers and LNG exports. Read →
U.S. energy firms added rigs for a third consecutive week, with the total oil and gas rig count rising 7 to 580, the highest since May 2025. Oil rigs increased 5 to 445 and gas rigs rose 1 to 126, signaling potential future output growth amid higher expected prices. Read →
Japan reduced natural gas-fired power generation 16% year-over-year in June to 17.3 terawatt hours while increasing coal generation 4.6%, as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tightened LNG supplies. The shift underscores Asian nations turning to alternatives amid Middle East supply risks affecting a fifth of global exports. Read →
Citigroup analysts said Brent could drop to $60 a barrel by year-end because shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz are normalizing, Chinese demand remains weak, and physical crude markets have softened sharply. Inventories have drawn far less than expected, allowing fundamentals to reassert themselves over the geopolitical risk premium. This adds to broader bearish forecasts for the second half of 2026. Read →
Front-month WTI settled up 2.2% at $70.75 a barrel and Brent rose 1.6% to $73.15 after U.S. and Iranian strikes over the weekend raised fresh supply disruption worries around the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts noted the risk premium has declined but insurers are pulling back from rapid tanker movements, keeping traffic at reduced levels. Markets expect flows to continue for an extended period even as depleted inventories may provide later support. Read →
Brent settled at $71.80 a barrel, up 0.32%, and WTI finished at $68.69, up 0.16%, as buyers covered shorts ahead of the long U.S. Independence Day weekend. Gains followed progress in U.S.-Iran talks in Doha and continued tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The modest recovery came after recent declines erased much of the prior geopolitical premium. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · EIA's 87 Bcf storage injection exceeds expectations, pressuring US natural gas futures lower amid ample supply.
The EIA reported an 87 Bcf net injection into US storage for the week ended June 26, above market expectations of around 81-83 Bcf. This larger-than-anticipated build signals robust supply relative to summer demand and immediately weighed on NYMEX natural gas futures. Elevated inventories support bearish near-term price pressure despite ongoing heat-driven power burn. Read →
A new Wood Mackenzie report forecasts the end of the cheap US natural gas era, with Henry Hub prices rising structurally due to rapid LNG export growth, AI-driven power demand, and declining productivity in key basins like Marcellus, Haynesville, and Permian. Producers face higher development costs on remaining acreage, tightening the supply response over the next decade. Read →
NGI data show US pipeline exports to Mexico averaged a record 8.35 Bcf/d in June. Strong cross-border flows add to domestic demand alongside LNG feedgas and power burn, supporting prices even as storage builds. Read →
Williams will reduce southbound capacity on its Transco pipeline by about 0.5 Bcf/d for most of the summer during expansion work. The move tightens Southeast deliveries precisely when cooling demand peaks, potentially lifting regional basis and spot prices. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF slips to 44 EUR/MWh on July 3 amid easing Hormuz risks and low EU storage at 49% full; JKM holds near 16 USD/MMBtu.
Stephen Stapczynski · Bloomberg · Thu, Jul 2, 2026
Bloomberg reports an abrupt slowdown in Qatar LNG tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz despite some oil traffic resuming. Fewer shipments keep supply tight for Asian and European buyers reliant on Qatari volumes. This sustains upward pressure on JKM and TTF benchmarks amid ongoing regional risks. Read →
JKM edged up 0.34% to 16.08 USD/MMBtu on July 2. Persistent limits on Qatari exports via Hormuz and steady Northeast Asian demand underpin the benchmark. The move narrows but does not erase the TTF-JKM spread dynamics for spot cargoes. Read →
ICE data shows Dutch TTF Aug 2026 futures around 43.7 EUR/MWh with modest volume. Low EU storage levels and variable LNG send-out into northwest Europe influence pricing. Milder weather demand provides some offset as markets monitor Norwegian flows and any residual pipeline supply. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM issues heat-wave alerts, forecasts record 166 GW demand July 2 amid data-center strain and price spikes to $600+/MWh in Virginia.
PJM forecasts Thursday load breaking the 2006 summer record of 165,563 MW due to extreme heat across the mid-Atlantic. The DOE ordered PJM to maximize generation and approved directing transmission owners to curtail data centers and large loads with backup generation if needed before voltage reduction or load shed. Alerts signal heightened reliability risks from surging demand. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Thermal coal prices fell to $129.10/t on July 2 amid peace talks easing Middle East supply risks.
India's coal-fired generation rose 14% y/y to 120.20 billion kWh in June, the highest since November 2023, driven by a heatwave, fifth-driest June on record and weak hydropower. Total power output climbed 10.4% as renewables hit a record share but could not meet evening peak demand without more thermal capacity. The surge boosts thermal coal demand in Asia's second-largest consumer. Read →
Central planners view coal as essential for grid stability while scaling renewables, with some provinces extending its use. A major clean-energy base in Inner Mongolia sits beside active coal mines. This policy sustains domestic demand and import needs despite long-term decarbonization goals. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA acreage and stocks data plus Midwest weather shift grains to weather-driven trading ahead of holiday.
USDA raised 2026 corn plantings to 95.343 million acres, up slightly from March and defying expectations for a cut. June 1 corn stocks hit 5.295 billion bushels, below trade estimates. December corn futures rose 6 cents to $4.36 per bushel on the tighter supply signal. Read →
Corn monitors pollination amid heat in Eastern Corn Belt; old-crop export sales fell to 28.8 million bushels. Soybeans mixed with old-crop sales at a marketing-year low of 1.5 million bushels. Wheat consolidated after June 30 acreage cut, with weekly sales at 11 million bushels. Read →
Futures extended Tuesday’s post-USDA gains overnight as mixed weather outlooks drive uncertainty ahead of the holiday weekend. Focus shifts to Midwest conditions after the June 30 acreage and stocks reports. Corn and soybeans led the advance. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME base metals rise broadly with tin up over 2% as SHFE aluminum and nickel gain on positive industrial data and inventory moves.
Andy Home details how the Iran conflict and subsequent peace talks caused sharp swings in LME prices for aluminum, copper, zinc, nickel and tin through the first half of 2026. Aluminum hit a four-year high on Gulf smelter disruptions before unwinding, while copper trades in a narrow range amid tariff uncertainty and zinc outperformed on a surprise deficit. The analysis underscores persistent low inventories and divergent metal-specific fundamentals despite macro volatility. Read →
SMM reports most SHFE base metals advanced at midday with copper up 0.76%, aluminum up 1.45% and tin up 0.66%. LME tin climbed 2.05%, nickel 1.1%, aluminum 1.04% and copper 0.96% as of 11:46 ET. Lithium carbonate futures rose 1.87% alongside precious metals gains, supported by domestic equipment upgrade funding and cooling US jobs data easing rate-hike bets. Read →
LME copper warehouse stocks declined by 3,450 tons to 318,900 tons, tightening visible supply further. The move aligns with broader base metals support from industrial demand and energy-transition themes amid ongoing inventory drawdowns. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · CMRG restricts Fortescue low-grade iron ore deliveries from July 15 amid stalled talks, pressuring Chinese port stocks and miner leverage.
CMRG directed some domestic steel mills to avoid taking certain Fortescue portside products from July 15. Fortescue ships most output to China and continues supply negotiations with CMRG. The action follows CMRG's prior directive against mills discussing Fortescue's new Fortune Fines product. Read →
CMRG informed steelmakers and traders to take delivery of Fortescue Super Special Fines by July 15 or face blacklisting and logistical restrictions. Negotiations on long-term contracts have stalled, with some July shipments already delayed. The step tightens CMRG control over pricing and mirrors its earlier BHP dispute. Read →
Rebar and other steel futures on Chinese exchanges showed limited movement on July 2 with domestic long steel markets steady to down. Iron ore 62% Fe CFR China prices fell 0.65% weekly. Weak pre-holiday demand and bearish sentiment weighed on longs amid broader margin pressure on mills. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold rises toward $4,200 after weak US jobs data cuts Fed rate-hike odds.
Gold extended two days of gains, rising as much as 1.8% to around $4,195 an ounce after US hiring slowed sharply in June. The data reduced chances of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year, easing pressure on bullion prices. Spot gold has now advanced for a third consecutive session. Read →
Agnico Eagle Mines reported a rock mass movement at the Barnat open pit of its Canadian Malartic complex in Quebec, prompting a temporary suspension of mining operations with no injuries or damage. The incident could reduce production by up to 150,000 ounces of gold per year in 2027 and 2028. Processing continues using stockpiled ore, with full-year 2026 output expected toward the lower end of the 3.3-3.5 million ounce guidance range. Read →
Official gold reserves rose by a net 41 tonnes in May, with Poland adding 18t and China 10t for its 20th straight month of purchases. Year-to-date, Poland leads with 64t accumulated. The World Gold Council’s 2026 survey shows 89% of central banks expect global reserves to rise over the next 12 months, with a record 45% expecting their own holdings to increase. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China export curbs on MP Materials and USA Rare Earth drive rare earth supply-chain tensions.
MP Materials sued USA Rare Earth in May over alleged theft of grain boundary diffusion technology for magnets by a former employee, seeking $5 million. China added both firms plus eight others to its export control list last week in retaliation for US restrictions on Chinese companies. The dispute underscores IP and supply risks for US mine-to-magnet efforts backed by Pentagon funding. Read →
G7 leaders at the Évian summit agreed to cut dependence on any single non-G7/partner supplier of rare earths and permanent magnets below 60% by 2030, with a 50% ambition sooner. The target follows 195 announced projects worth $74 billion in G7/partner critical minerals value chains and responds to prior Chinese export controls on heavy rare earths and magnets. Ministers must set targets for other critical minerals by year-end while boosting recycling. Read →
China placed MP Materials and USA Rare Earth on its export control list, restricting dual-use goods and technology exports to the firms central to US mine-to-magnet strategy. The move escalates US-China critical minerals confrontation and directly hits efforts to build non-Chinese capacity. Both companies are key to Pentagon-backed domestic supply chains. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Drewry WCI surges 9% to $4,530/FEU on Transpacific and Asia-Europe rate spikes amid peak demand and tight capacity.
Drewry World Container Index rose 9% to $4,530 per 40ft container. Shanghai-New York rates climbed 11% to $7,902 and Shanghai-Los Angeles 10% to $6,349; Shanghai-Genoa up 10% to $6,360 and Shanghai-Rotterdam 7% to $4,682. Blank sailings and GRIs/PSS announcements signal further rises as peak season demand tightens east-west capacity. Read →
Baltic Dry Index rose 3.43% to 2,650 points. Capesize jumped 6.2% to 3,291 on stronger Australia-Brazil iron ore cargoes despite Fortescue delivery curbs in China; Panamax gained 0.8% to 2,195 and Supramax edged up 0.1% to 1,675. Read →
Drewry WCI rose 9% week-over-week to $4,530/FEU driven by Transpacific and Asia-Europe strengthening. Carriers deploy GRIs and PSS with eight blank sailings slated on Transpacific; one on Asia-Europe amid disciplined capacity and robust peak demand. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EPP pushes to extend free EU ETS allowances beyond 2030 ahead of July 15 Commission proposal.
The European People's Party urged Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra to extend free carbon allowances for heavy industry beyond 2030 in an internal document ahead of the European Commission's July 15 ETS revision proposal. The move aims to safeguard industrial competitiveness while the ETS has already cut covered emissions by about 50% since 2005. Some steelmakers oppose further weakening, warning it would penalize early decarbonization investors. Read →
U.S. biodiesel and renewable diesel plants ran at 77-78% capacity in May versus the EPA's 90% assumption for record 2026 mandates requiring 8.86 billion biomass-based diesel RINs. Production through April lagged needs by 1.41 billion RINs, depleting the RIN bank and raising risks of higher credit prices or future mandate adjustments. Refiners' group AFPM sued the EPA and lobbied lawmakers over compliance costs. Read →
California's LCFS program pays dairy farmers for manure-to-biogas projects that generate credits for fuel suppliers, but uses a 100-year methane GWP that understates long-term CO2 impacts from displaced fossil fuels. Researchers argue the system trades short-lived methane cuts for permanent CO2 additions, locking in more warming. Regulators extended elements beyond 2050 despite these critiques. Read →
On June 29, Streamex (NASDAQ: STEX) partnered with Siebert Financial ($20B AUM) and tZERO to distribute its gold-backed, up to 3.5% yield-bearing tokenized security GLDY through traditional brokerage accounts. Siebert brokers can now offer it like any stock or bond with custody at regulated tZERO, expanding access for accredited and institutional clients without crypto onboarding. This bridges TradFi distribution to on-chain commodity RWAs, directly boosting tokenized gold liquidity and adoption. Read →
Ondo Finance launched the first live third-party custodial tokenized U.S. securities using the SEC’s framework, issuing blockchain versions of BlackRock’s iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and Micron (MU) shares via Oasis Pro transfer agent. Broadridge integration adds on-chain proxy voting and governance rights matching traditional holders. While equities-focused, it validates the regulatory path for expanding tokenized commodities and RWAs within U.S. rules. Read →
Syngenta Group appointed Hengde Qin, current COO and Head of Seeds and former China business head, as CEO effective August 1, 2026. He succeeds Jeff Rowe, who steps down after nearly 10 years and returns to the U.S. The move follows a board succession process at the major ag-tech firm. Read →
Presidio Production Company closed its acquisition of the Canyon Creek assets in the Arkoma Basin for about $83 million from Vortus-controlled sellers. The deal, its first in the basin and second as a public company, adds 21 MMcfe/d net production and supports an expected dividend hike to $1.50 per share annualized. Read →
Enterprise Products Partners said co-CEO A.J. 'Jim' Teague will retire January 4, 2027, after 28 years. Co-CEO W. Randall 'Randy' Fowler will become sole CEO; Teague will aid transition. The midstream giant has grown massively under his leadership. Read →
Alliance Resource Partners closed its previously announced $206.2 million acquisition of interests in AllDale Minerals III and IV. The deal expands ARLP's oil & gas royalties platform, with effective date April 1, 2026, and post-closing adjustments. Read →
Rafal Nowak and Javi West Larrañaga · Reuters · Thu, Jul 2, 2026
Energy sector profits are forecast to surge 109.3% in Q2, powering overall STOXX 600 earnings growth of 14.5% versus 5.5% ex-energy. The outlook highlights oil and gas groups' outsized role in European blue-chip results amid volatile commodity prices. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · LME eyes rule changes for Hong Kong metals storage as China pushes greater global metals influence.
The London Metal Exchange is weighing rule changes such as allowing outdoor aluminium storage in Hong Kong to increase activity at the location. Hong Kong warehouses hold minimal stocks despite opening in 2025. The move aligns with China's efforts to expand influence in global metals trading. Read →
OPEC+ producers are expected to approve another 188,000 bpd increase in output targets from August at their Sunday meeting. The step follows prior hikes and comes as prices ease with reopening supply routes. Seven core members have already added nearly 800,000 bpd since April. Read →
Five Japanese steel associations called the EU's new steel safeguard, effective July 1, unfair and inappropriate. It sets 18.3 million t annual tariff-free quotas with 50% out-of-quota duties and allocates Japan only 800,000 t versus prior 1.5 million t average imports. Groups urge Japan to negotiate or pursue WTO and EPA dispute settlement. Read →
The UK's Trade Remedies Authority started an anti-dumping investigation July 1 into US linear low-density polyethylene imports at Ineos's request. The probe examines claims of dumped prices injuring the sole UK producer. It targets a key plastics feedstock used in packaging and films. Read →
EU plans for aluminium scrap export restrictions face delay until at least 2027. Initial hopes targeted second-quarter 2026 implementation to retain scrap for domestic recyclers. The postponement affects secondary aluminium supply chains and global scrap trade flows. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
A trader argues WTI crude is undervalued at current levels around $68, pointing to offline Russian supply, delayed Venezuelan output, and pent-up Asian/US restocking demand. They see a potential $10 upside and are long against the trend with a tight stop. This reflects retail optimism on energy amid geopolitical supply risks. Read →
Commodities trader notes gold at $4122 and silver near $61 with crude at $68.45, attributing consolidation to positive geopolitical developments and lower rate hike odds. Markets gain direction as uncertainty eases, supporting precious metals bids among retail and crypto-linked accounts. Read →
Market commentary highlights gold reclaiming the $4000 round number with a +1% COMEX session, silver leading at $60 as high-beta metal. The bounce follows softer jobs data and dollar weakness, viewed as a bull-market pullback rather than reversal amid broader risk-off flows. Read →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.